The total mobile data traffic in Southeast Asia and Oceania is expected to further grow in the next five years, increasing eleven-fold by the year 2022, according to Ericsson Mobility Report 2017, a study that provides insights into the current mobile network data traffic and market trends that are applicable to both consumers and enterprises.
Sean Gowran, president and country manager of Ericsson Philippines and Pacific Islands, attributes the growth to the uptake in smartphone subscription penetration, deployment of LTE and 5G technology, Internet of Things (IoT), and other related factors that can contribute to the hike in mobile data traffic.
The continued surge in mobile data traffic is mainly blamed to the growth in smartphone use and assembly that arises from the swelling demand for this device. According to the study, about 50% of all mobile subscriptions in the region will be associated with smartphones by the end of 2017.
Smartphone subscriptions are estimated to reach 70% by the end of 2022. As a result, the smartphone data traffic per month per smartphone in the region has been estimated to grow seven-fold, from 2016 to 2022. Globally, it is expected to grow six-fold for the same period.
Mobile subscriptions in the Philippines are growing. In terms of new mobile subscriptions, the Philippines was among the top 10 countries (globally) with net mobile subscription additions of 1.7-million in the first quarter of 2017. Other APAC countries in the top ten include China, India, Myanmar, and Indonesia.
Regarding LTE network deployment which delivers faster upload and download speeds to help operators cope with the growing mobile data traffic, Gowran said the study showed that the share of LTE subscriptions to the country’s total mobile subscriptions is estimated to increase, reaching 70% by 2022, from only 10% in 2016. By 2018, LTE will be the dominant access technology globally. On the other hand, the share of the WCDMA/HSPA technology to the nation’s total smartphone subscriptions is slowly dropping, from 40% in 2016 to 30% by 2022.
With its speed, network slicing and low latency features, the Fifth Generation (5G) technology is also a key factor for the growing data traffic in the region. Early deployments of 5G will translate into a projected 28-million 5G subscriptions by 2022. The availability of new spectrum and the development of innovative use cases should help accelerate the deployment of 5G services across the region.
Gowran noted that LTE will represent 55% of all mobile subscriptions across the APAC region by the end of 2022. He also said that APAC will lead the global rollout of 5G along with North America, which will account for about 10% of the region’s subscriptions by 2022. The 5G deployment will be driven initially in South Korea in 2018, followed by Japan and China by 2020. Australia and Singapore are also expected to be among the early adopters of 5G, according to Gowran.
Meanwhile, the number of cellular IoT subscriptions in the region is also expected to increase by more than four-fold in the next five years, reaching an estimated 180-million by the end of 2022. This growth will help facilitate the digital transformation of industries, and provide mobile operators with opportunities to take on different roles in the IoT value chain.
